The Texas Senate race in 2026 may be more competitive than expected, if Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) decides to enter the fray. In an appearance Sunday on CNN’s State of the Union, Crockett confirmed that she has received internal polling indicating a real path to victory—especially if embattled Republican Ken Paxton emerges as the GOP nominee.
While the race is still in its early stages, Crockett made it clear that her decision to potentially challenge incumbent Sen. John Cornyn isn’t based on speculation or wishful thinking—it’s rooted in data.
“I am still thinking about running,” she told host Jake Tapper. “We did get our polling back, so we are moving on to the next phase to determine whether or not this is what makes sense in the moment.”
Pressed further, Crockett offered a glimpse into the numbers: in a hypothetical matchup with Paxton, she says she performs “really well.” Against Cornyn, the results show her within the margin of error—far closer than many political observers would have assumed in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate seat since the 1980s.
It’s a revealing moment in a state long considered out of reach for Democrats at the federal level. But changing demographics, years of grassroots organizing, and a Republican Party increasingly divided between its establishment wing and its Trump-aligned base have created an opening.
Crockett was candid about her preferences: “Obviously, we would prefer to have Paxton.” It’s not hard to see why. Paxton, Texas’ attorney general, remains under a legal cloud and survived impeachment by the skin of his teeth. While his base remains loyal, he’s a far more polarizing figure than Cornyn, who has tried—however awkwardly—to straddle the line between traditional conservatism and Trump-era populism.
Still, Crockett’s tone was measured, and she made clear that polling alone isn’t enough. “At the end of the day, a poll is a poll. And so you need to actually be able to execute on that.”
Translation: favorable numbers are one thing, but building a statewide campaign in a place as large—and as historically red—as Texas is another. The infrastructure needs to match the optimism. That means fundraising, mobilizing a statewide voter base, and confronting a Republican political machine that’s been entrenched for decades.
But Crockett’s confidence shouldn’t be dismissed. A Democrat polling within the margin of error against Cornyn, or outperforming Paxton, isn’t just a footnote—it’s a signal that the political landscape in Texas continues to shift. The state may not be blue, but it’s certainly more purple than it used to be.
