Historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman, known for his nearly flawless record in predicting presidential election outcomes since 1984, is pointing to widespread disinformation and billionaire Elon Musk’s influence as the key factors behind his mistaken prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would emerge victorious in 2024.
Lichtman shared his perspective on Chris Cuomo’s NewsNation show, suggesting that a flood of misinformation, amplified by conservative media and Musk’s vocal support for Trump, may have skewed public sentiment in unexpected ways, leading to Trump’s sweeping win.
Lichtman, whose prediction model is based on a “13 Keys” system of true-or-false questions that assess the political landscape, had been confident about a Harris victory, citing a stable domestic situation and the lack of a dramatic “game-changer” overseas as indicators of her likely success.
However, he now says that the rise in disinformation contributed to a “grievance election” where concerns over immigration, hurricane relief, and foreign policy, particularly the war in Ukraine, were heavily influenced by distorted or misleading narratives. According to Lichtman, Musk played a notable role in amplifying these narratives.
The tech mogul’s substantial financial contributions to Trump’s campaign and his active role in sharing politically charged information online made him, in Lichtman’s view, a significant factor that tipped the scales.
“Disinformation has exploded to an unprecedented degree,” Lichtman explained, emphasizing that while misinformation is not new in American politics, the scale and reach of current disinformation are unlike anything previously seen. He argued that Musk’s involvement—both as a financier of Trump’s campaign and as a high-profile media figure—helped “dissolve truth,” ultimately creating an environment ripe for distrust and division.
“As scholars have shown, once you dissolve truth, democracy dissolves along with it,” Lichtman stated, evoking George Orwell’s 1984 as a cautionary parallel to today’s media environment, where he believes the distortion of information can erode democratic institutions.
Lichtman’s remarks highlight his broader concern about how the manipulation of information impacts public perception and democratic processes. For decades, Lichtman’s “13 Keys” system has relied on evaluating stable indicators like the economy, social unrest, and incumbency advantage. However, in 2024, he suggests that the usual indicators may have been overridden by the sheer power of digital influence, particularly on platforms Musk controls or promotes.
Musk’s social media reach and financial backing effectively allowed him to play a role in reshaping the public narrative—a factor Lichtman believes traditional analysis has not yet adapted to account for fully.
