Well, here we are again—another Disney tentpole movie facing the very real possibility of box office embarrassment. This time, it’s Mufasa: The Lion King, a prequel nobody really asked for, sporting a $200 million price tag before you even factor in the estimated $75–$100 million Disney will spend on marketing. In other words, this feline flick needs to claw its way to at least $550 million worldwide just to break even.
But according to early projections, that mountain might be a little too steep. Analysts are predicting a soft opening weekend of just $50 million. To add insult to injury, it’s expected to lose the top spot to Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which is predicted to rake in a slightly better $60 million. That’s gotta sting—getting outpaced by an animated blue rodent wearing sneakers.
It’s worth remembering that The Lion King (2019)—Disney’s CGI remake of the 1994 animated classic—pulled in $78 million on opening day and ended its debut weekend with a whopping $200 million. The drop-off in anticipation between these two films is so steep it might require a parachute.
But let’s not ignore the real elephant in the room (or should I say lion?): audience fatigue.
Disney has milked its beloved IPs dry, squeezing them for every last drop of nostalgia while alienating longtime fans with divisive creative choices and relentless moral lecturing. The House of Mouse has been operating less like a creative powerhouse and more like a factory assembly line—churning out polished, technically impressive films that lack the heart, charm, and originality of their predecessors.
Then there’s the Rotten Tomatoes score. With a “rotten” 58% critic rating, Mufasa isn’t exactly winning hearts and minds. Compare that to Sonic the Hedgehog 3’s impressive 85% fresh rating, and it’s easy to see why parents might opt for the plucky blue speedster over yet another photorealistic lion movie.
The critic consensus on Mufasa sums it up neatly:
“Barry Jenkins’ deft hand and Lin-Manuel Miranda’s music go some way towards squaring the Circle of Life in Mufasa, but this fitfully soulful story is ill-served by its impersonal, photorealistic animation style.”
Translation: Barry Jenkins is talented, Lin-Manuel Miranda’s music is catchy, but this CGI-heavy world just doesn’t have the magic of hand-drawn animation.
And therein lies one of Disney’s biggest miscalculations. The original Lion King (1994) is still a masterpiece—a film etched into the hearts of an entire generation. But the CGI-heavy remakes, while visually stunning, often feel hollow. When everything looks “real,” the expressive charm of animation—the very thing that made these stories timeless—gets lost in translation.
Now, could Mufasa still surprise us and overperform at the box office? Sure, anything’s possible—especially around the holiday season, when families are looking for activities to keep the kids entertained. But let’s be honest: Disney’s golden touch at the box office has been fading for years.
The studio has been burning bridges with its core audience, alienating parents with overt messaging and turning once-beloved characters into hollow corporate mascots. At the same time, rival studios are proving that audiences will show up for family-friendly movies—as long as they’re fun, engaging, and respectful of their audience.
Look at Sonic the Hedgehog. It’s silly, it’s colorful, and it doesn’t try to do anything other than entertain. Audiences appreciate that.
If Mufasa flops—and let’s be real, it’s leaning in that direction—it won’t be because audiences have stopped loving The Lion King. It’ll be because audiences have stopped trusting Disney to deliver magic without a heavy dose of lecturing and corporate sterility.
At the end of the day, Disney needs a reset. A real one—not just swapping out CEOs and issuing hollow apologies. They need to rediscover the formula that made them the undisputed kings of animated storytelling in the first place: compelling stories, unforgettable characters, and genuine emotional depth.
