While national approval ratings dominate headlines, savvy political insiders know they’re only part of the story. What actually matters—especially in off-year elections—is how a president is doing in key swing states and battleground districts, where Congressional control is determined. And by that more targeted metric, President Donald Trump is sitting in a much stronger position than many realize.
According to new polling from Morning Consult, Trump holds a positive net approval rating in 27 states, including five of the seven major swing states. That’s a notable improvement from just a month ago. For instance, in Arizona, voters had been evenly split, but now Trump is one point above water. He also holds positive net approval ratings in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—all crucial to controlling the Senate and House in 2026.
Morning Consult: Trump net approval
🟢 North Carolina: +6
🟢 Georgia: +6
🟢 Nevada: +6
🟢 Arizona: +1
🟢 Pennsylvania: +1
🟤 Michigan: -2
🟤 Wisconsin: -5
——
Other States (highest to lowest)🟢 Wyoming: +44
🟢 West Virginia: +33
🟢 North Dakota: +27
🟢 Idaho: +26
🟢 Alabama:… https://t.co/euFHNxbGYs pic.twitter.com/OWS0FrAAJN— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 9, 2025
This strength matters deeply. While Trump’s national approval rating remains middling, Congressional Republicans care far more about how he polls in their own backyards. Many Representatives are relatively unknown figures in their districts, and local voters often use presidential approval as a proxy when casting ballots for or against them.
Congress reacts to regional pressure, not national polling averages. That’s why Trump’s support in red and purple areas translates into legislative clout. If Trump is viewed favorably by voters in key swing districts, those Representatives are more likely to vote his way, even when he’s not on the ballot.
Of course, it’s not all good news. Trump remains underwater in Virginia and New Jersey, where major gubernatorial elections are on the horizon. In Virginia, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, who leans more conservative than outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin, is struggling against Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Early polls give Spanberger a double-digit lead, and her fundraising advantage—$14.3 million to Sears’ $3 million—is significant.
In New Jersey, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill is running to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy. Despite the state’s blue tilt, Democrats are clearly nervous. The Democratic Governors Association is pouring $20 million into the race, an amount that exceeds the total ad spending in the 2021 gubernatorial election. Why? Because Republican Jack Ciattarelli, with Trump’s endorsement and strong name recognition, could be a real contender in a high-turnout environment.
Even so, the path for Republicans in New Jersey and Virginia is narrow. Trump remains unpopular in urban and federal-worker-heavy areas like Northern Virginia, and Sears’ harder-edged conservatism may not resonate beyond the GOP base.
But the larger trend is clear: Trump is consolidating regional strength, especially where it matters most—in the states and districts that swing control of Congress. His rising net approval in competitive states helps explain the momentum behind recent legislative victories, even as national press coverage remains fixated on coastal opposition.
