In a stunning political reversal, Canada’s once-floundering Liberal Party appears to be surging back to life—thanks, in part, to President Donald Trump.
Just weeks ago, the Conservative Party of Canada was on track to win a super-majority in the country’s next general election, riding high on widespread dissatisfaction with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. But now, new tariffs imposed by Trump—and his repeated references to Canada’s economic dependence on the U.S.—have completely reshaped the political landscape north of the border.
According to a new Ipsos poll, the Liberals now hold a two-point lead over the Conservatives, marking the first time since 2021 that they have pulled ahead. Just six weeks ago, the Conservatives had a 26-point lead—a massive swing that pollsters say is nearly unprecedented.
Two factors stand out:
- Trudeau is leaving. The prime minister’s plummeting popularity was a major drag on his party, but his upcoming resignation on March 9 has removed a major liability for the Liberals.
- Trump’s tariffs and tough talk on Canada. The 25% tariffs on Canadian imports, coupled with Trump’s offhand remarks about the U.S. “absorbing” Canada, have triggered an economic and nationalistic panic among Canadian voters.
Nik Nanos, a veteran Canadian pollster, put it bluntly:
“Trump has effectively changed the ballot question from: ‘Is it time for a change?’—which was bad news for the Liberals—to ‘Who can best deal with Donald Trump, the new existential threat to the Canadian economy?’”
In other words, a political environment that once favored Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been completely turned on its head.
Adding to the Conservatives’ woes is the Liberal Party’s likely new leader: Mark Carney—an Oxford-educated former central banker with a resume that looks more conservative than some actual Conservatives.
Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has held high-profile roles in global finance, including at Goldman Sachs and Brookfield Asset Management. His business-world credentials and pragmatic approach make him a far tougher opponent for Poilievre than Trudeau ever was.
An Angus Reid poll found that 51% of Canadians believe Carney would be better at handling U.S.-Canada relations and trade disputes, compared to just 35% for Poilievre.
Even in Quebec, where the Conservatives had hoped to gain ground, Carney outperforms Poilievre by nearly 10 points. And in a head-to-head matchup, a Carney-led Liberal Party is virtually tied with the Conservatives at 44% to 45%—a dramatic shift from just a month ago.
Poilievre has built his brand as a populist, anti-establishment leader—often likened to a “Trump-light” figure by Canadian media. But with Trump’s policies now directly impacting Canada’s economy, Poilievre’s close ties to the American right may become a liability.
While he continues to hammer the Liberals on carbon taxes and government overreach, voters appear more concerned with economic security and Canada’s place in a world where Trump holds the reins.
If these polling trends continue, and Carney calls a snap election upon taking leadership, the Liberals could not only win the national vote but form a majority government, dealing a crushing blow to what once seemed like an inevitable Conservative victory.
