As Election Day looms, Michigan’s influential Arab American and Muslim communities have emerged as pivotal groups that could sway the outcome in this swing state, and the signs don’t look good for Vice President Kamala Harris. Polls indicate that Donald Trump is making inroads with these voters, leading Harris by a narrow but significant margin of four points among Arab Americans.
With Michigan’s 16 electoral votes hanging in the balance, that difference could be a game-changer. High-profile local leaders, including imams and the mayor of Dearborn Heights, threw their support behind Trump at a recent rally, signaling growing dissatisfaction within these communities with the Biden-Harris administration’s foreign policy, especially regarding Gaza.
Trump leads Harris 49%-47% among Arab-Americans; Biden won them 61%-36% in 2020 — YouGov
— NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) October 27, 2024
Notably, Rep. Rashida Tlaib, Michigan’s only Palestinian American congresswoman and a vocal member of the progressive “Squad,” has declined to endorse Harris, citing frustrations with the administration’s handling of Middle East issues. Tlaib’s withholding of support speaks volumes, especially since her constituency includes a large base of Muslim voters in the Detroit area.
At a United Auto Workers rally in Detroit, Tlaib encouraged turnout but avoided any direct support for Harris, reflecting the disillusionment she and her constituents feel toward Democratic policy on Gaza. In her eyes, the administration’s stance is far from the progressive change she advocates, particularly regarding arms and aid policies toward Israel.
CNN guest: I can’t find a single Arab American that is voting for Kamala Harris. pic.twitter.com/jEwN1YG2DJ
— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) October 18, 2024
The ongoing conflict in Gaza is not just a regional issue for Michigan’s voters; it’s personal. Over 100,000 Michigan voters cast their ballots as “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary earlier this year, a sign of waning enthusiasm. This dissatisfaction has driven local groups like the Uncommitted National Movement, founded by Tlaib’s sister, Layla Elabed, to withhold endorsements for Harris, although they stopped short of backing Trump.
In a telling moment last month, Harris attempted to mend fences by meeting privately with Arab American and Muslim leaders in Flint, but her efforts seem to have fallen short, especially after campaign staffers allegedly hinted at a potential arms embargo on Israel—remarks the campaign quickly walked back.
Big unforced error by the Harris campaign, and in Michigan nonetheless. https://t.co/ermbStPSUh
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 23, 2024
Arab American and Muslim leaders who have distanced themselves from Harris cite a deeper division within the Democratic base, driven by the administration’s stance on Gaza and Lebanon. For Harris, these defections are troubling, as turnout from these communities has historically been crucial in Democratic victories. The split among Democrats over Middle East policy represents a deeper divide than previous intraparty debates, and the issue appears to be driving not just discontent, but potential voter abstention or even third-party support—trends that ultimately benefit Trump.
