With less than a week until New York City’s high-stakes Democratic mayoral primary on June 24, the once-dominant lead of former Governor Andrew Cuomo is shrinking rapidly, according to a new Marist Institute for Public Opinion poll released Wednesday. The numbers signal a potentially dramatic showdown between establishment resilience and progressive insurgency in a race that may redefine the city’s political future.
Cuomo remains the top choice for 38% of likely Democratic primary voters. But Zohran Mamdani, the 33-year-old democratic socialist state assemblyman from Queens, has climbed to 27%, slashing Cuomo’s lead nearly in half from the previous month. The race is being conducted under ranked-choice voting, giving lower-tier candidates’ supporters the power to shift final outcomes through second and third-choice preferences.
Mamdani’s surge has been buoyed by the full weight of the progressive left, with recent endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Bernie Sanders. Their coordinated push aims to consolidate progressive voters behind Mamdani in a crowded 11-candidate field. The strategy appears to be working, turning the race into a two-man contest with City Comptroller Brad Lander, now under federal scrutiny, trailing far behind.
The Marist poll was conducted prior to Lander’s arrest on June 17, when he allegedly assaulted a federal officer during an anti-ICE protest at a Manhattan immigration court. The fallout from that event may further collapse Lander’s support and redirect progressive voters toward Mamdani.
In anticipation of Mamdani’s momentum, the Cuomo campaign launched a sharp-edged ad blitz questioning his readiness to lead a city of over 8 million.
“Zohran Mamdani’s a 33-year-old dangerously inexperienced legislator who’s passed just three bills with a staff you can fit inside a New York elevator,” the ad claims, contrasting Cuomo’s three-term record as governor and crisis management during COVID-19 and national emergencies.
Rich Azzopardi, Cuomo’s longtime spokesperson, doubled down on the experience argument:
“These are serious times, and New Yorkers know that Andrew Cuomo is the only candidate with the experience and the real record of results to fix what’s broken and put the city back on the right track.”
But Cuomo’s re-entry into politics comes with baggage. His resignation in 2021 followed 11 sexual harassment allegations and a COVID nursing home scandal. While Cuomo has denied wrongdoing, the Justice Department opened a criminal probe last month into whether he misled Congress about nursing home deaths during the pandemic.
With early voting underway and more than 130,000 ballots already submitted, the outcome may hinge on voter turnout and how second-choice votes fall under ranked-choice rules. Given the energy among Mamdani supporters and progressive organizing efforts, especially in younger and immigrant-heavy boroughs, Cuomo’s lead is vulnerable.
Adding to the volatility, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, plagued by plummeting approval ratings, is running as an independent after withdrawing from the Democratic primary. His move leaves the Democratic field wide open but injects a wildcard into the general election.
Though not on the ballot, President Donald Trump has become a rhetorical centerpiece in the final stretch. Cuomo and other Democrats have attacked Trump’s recent deployment of National Guard and Marines to Los Angeles amid unrest tied to ICE raids. They warn similar federal crackdowns could come to New York if Trump’s administration escalates immigration enforcement.
