Political polls often tell competing stories, and New York’s 2026 gubernatorial race is already proving that point.
A new survey suggests Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman may be much closer to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul than many observers expected. At the same time, the poll’s origins—and other recent polling—offer reasons for caution before declaring the race competitive.
According to the New York Post, a Red Oak Strategic poll commissioned by a pro-Blakeman super PAC found Hochul leading by only four percentage points. The survey placed the governor at 47 percent support, with Blakeman at 43 percent, while 10 percent of registered voters remained undecided.
This 4-point poll is a MUCH bigger deal than people realize.
Bookmark this name: Bruce Blakeman.
He could be the key to fixing New York, reining in Mamdani madness, AND helping keep the U.S. House in Republican hands by driving GOP turnout across New York’s battleground… https://t.co/gzZXVzVF7t
— Erin Molan (@Erin_Molan) July 29, 2026
The poll surveyed 2,000 registered voters and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.
If the numbers accurately reflect the electorate, they would represent a far tighter race than many expected in a state where Democrats enjoy a substantial registration advantage.
The survey also found an enthusiasm gap that Republicans would welcome. According to the poll, 73 percent of Republican voters described themselves as significantly more interested in this year’s governor’s race than in previous contests, compared with only 44 percent of Democrats.
Higher enthusiasm does not guarantee victory, but it can influence turnout, particularly in a state where statewide Republican victories have been rare in recent decades.
🚨UNBELIEVABLE: New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is now begging rich people who moved to Florida and Texas because of the high taxes in NY to move back and pay higher taxes to fund socialist programs.
“I need people who are high net worth to support the generous social programs that… pic.twitter.com/uRo2ifca6n
— David J Harris Jr (@DavidJHarrisJr) July 27, 2026
Republicans face a difficult electoral landscape in New York. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two to one statewide, while roughly one-quarter of registered voters identify as independents. The GOP also has little influence in the Democrat-controlled state Legislature and has not elected a governor since George Pataki left office two decades ago.
Even so, the poll contained warning signs for the incumbent.
Only 38 percent of respondents viewed Hochul favorably, while 58 percent expressed an unfavorable opinion. The survey also found that just 33 percent believed she deserved another term, compared with 61 percent who said she did not.
“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” Red Oak Strategic wrote in a July 21 polling memorandum.
For Blakeman, however, the survey highlighted a significant obstacle.
Gov. Hochul expected to send rebate checks to New Yorkers shortly before Election Day https://t.co/GgXgCgIffp
— Gothamist (@Gothamist) July 29, 2026
Nearly half of those questioned—47 percent—said they either had never heard of him or did not know enough about him to form an opinion. That lack of statewide name recognition could present both a challenge and an opportunity. It means Blakeman has considerable work ahead introducing himself to voters, but it also leaves room for impressions to change as the campaign develops.
According to the poll memo, Blakeman performs especially well among key voting blocs, leading independent voters 54 percent to 33 percent, carrying Republicans by an overwhelming margin, and posting his strongest numbers in New York’s suburbs.
Still, the survey does not exist in isolation.
A Siena College poll released in late June painted a much different picture, giving Hochul a commanding 52 percent to 32 percent advantage over Blakeman. Meanwhile, another survey commissioned earlier in July by the conservative-leaning Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers found a considerably narrower race, with Hochul leading 47 percent to 41 percent.
