d legal immigrant who entered California politics relatively recently, is framing his campaign around dissatisfaction with the state’s current direction. He argues that years of Democratic leadership under Gov. Gavin Newsom have produced visible and systemic failures, citing issues like homelessness, crime, and cost of living as proof that voters are ready for change.
What makes his argument more than rhetorical, at least for now, is the data. A new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies places Hilton at 17 percent, narrowly ahead of fellow Republican Chad Bianco at 16 percent.
Both are polling above prominent Democratic contenders like Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter, each at 13 percent. While early polls are far from predictive, the numbers suggest a fragmented field—particularly on the Democratic side.
That fragmentation could prove decisive. California’s top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, to advance to the general election. If Democratic candidates split the vote among multiple viable contenders, there is a plausible path—at least mathematically—for two Republicans to move forward, an outcome that would have seemed improbable in recent cycles.
Still, the broader political environment remains complex. The same polling indicates that a significant share of California voters prioritize opposition to Trump-era policies and favor progressive positions.
That reality underscores the challenge facing any Republican candidate: even amid dissatisfaction with state leadership, the electorate’s baseline ideological lean has not fundamentally shifted.
Hilton’s campaign is attempting to thread that needle by focusing on governance rather than ideology. His message emphasizes enforcement of existing laws, particularly on immigration, while also positioning himself as supportive of legal immigration—a stance he personalizes through his own background. At the same time, he casts California as a testing ground for policies that, in his view, have had national consequences.
What is clear, however, is that the race is no longer entirely predictable. A divided Democratic field, combined with targeted messaging from Republican candidates, has introduced an element of volatility.
For Hilton, that volatility is the opportunity. Whether it becomes a breakthrough—or simply another moment of temporary disruption—will depend on how the field consolidates in the months ahead.
